Search for Willow Bend home values in Plano and you'll get three different stories before you've finished your coffee. Zillow's home value index puts the average at $1,385,433 as of June 30, 2026, down 2.0% over the past year. Redfin's neighborhood overview page lists a different average for the same window, $1,499,478, down 3.1%. Scroll further into Redfin's own market data and the number changes again: a 37.4% year-over-year drop reported for January 2026, landing at a median of $1.1 million. Homes.com, working from July 2026 activity, shows a median of $1.2 million and an average sale price of $1,286,591, a figure much closer to Zillow's calm read than to Redfin's own two numbers are to each other.
None of these are wrong. They're measuring the same golf-course enclave with methods that behave very differently in a housing pool this small, at this price point, during a moment when the neighborhood's biggest neighbor is being torn down.
The math behind the scary number
Redfin's steepest figure, the 37.4% plunge, comes from a single month's comparison built on 18 home sales. In an area where individual estates routinely list well past a million dollars, wrapped around White Rock Creek and the Kings and Queens courses at Gleneagles Country Club, 18 transactions isn't a large enough sample to absorb one outsized sale. Close a $4 million estate in January 2025 and skip an equivalent closing in January 2026, and the reported median can swing by hundreds of thousands of dollars without the underlying market actually moving.
Zillow's number reads calmer because its index smooths values across a wider pool of homes over time instead of snapshotting whichever handful happened to close in a given month. That's the entire reason its 2.0% dip looks nothing like Redfin's 37.4% one, even though both companies are describing the same streets. Homes.com's median, built from a broader trailing window, lands closer to Zillow's version of events than to Redfin's.
Here's the useful takeaway if you're comparing Willow Bend to another West Plano pocket on paper: the size of the reported swing tells you more about the size of the sample than about the direction of the market.
| Source | Metric | Figure | Time window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zillow home value index | Average value, year over year | $1,385,433, down 2.0% | As of June 30, 2026 |
| Redfin neighborhood overview | Average price, year over year | $1,499,478, down 3.1% | June 2026 |
| Redfin housing market page | Median sale price, year over year (18 sales) | $1.1 million, down 37.4% | January 2026 |
| Homes.com | Median and average sale price | $1.2 million median, $1,286,591 average | July 2026 |
The real reason the neighborhood feels unsettled
Statistical noise explains why the numbers disagree with each other. It doesn't explain why buyers are hesitating in the first place. For that, you have to look past the residential streets to the property line at the Dallas North Tollway and West Park Boulevard, where The Shops at Willow Bend has spent the past year losing its anchors and its future.
Macy's closed there in early 2025. Dillard's followed in January 2026 after a 25-year run. Neiman Marcus has announced it will close by early 2027. The mall's owner, Dallas-based Centennial Real Estate, bought the property in 2022 along with New York-based Waterfall Asset Management, and has spent the years since converting a struggling enclosed mall into a planned mixed-use district called The Bend, with retail, residential, a hotel, and office space. Tenants that remain, including North Texas Performing Arts, have been given notices to vacate. By the end of this August, most of the mall's remaining tenants were required to leave, with portions of the property scheduled to shift into redevelopment starting September 1.
The residential Willow Bend and the mall called Willow Bend are neighbors, not the same place. The homes wrapping Gleneagles Country Club sit in the 75093 zip code, zoned to Centennial Elementary, Renner Middle, and Shepton or Plano West high schools depending on address. But anyone shopping this pocket of West Plano right now is buying next to an active demolition site with an uncertain multi-year build-out ahead of it, and that reality shows up in caution long before it shows up in a clean statistic.
The plan keeps changing, so should your expectations
If you've heard that a Dallas Stars arena is coming to the site, that part is real, and it's further along than a lot of buzz suggests. In June 2026, Plano City Council approved a $700 million public funding plan as part of a roughly $3 billion mixed-use district anchored by the arena, with Stars owner Tom Gaglardi's company, Northland Properties, participating as a co-developer. That's a meaningful commitment of public dollars, not a rumor.
It's also years from delivering anything a homeowner can point to. Project leaders have said their goal is to break ground on the arena in 2028 and open it for the 2031-32 NHL season, according to the Dallas Morning News. That's five hockey seasons from now.
The mall demolition plan itself has already changed direction more than once. The original 2023 proposal targeted the Dillard's wing for teardown. After Macy's announced its closure, Centennial bought that building and reversed course in February 2025, sparing Dillard's and targeting the Macy's site instead, adding townhomes and single-family homes to the plan at the city council's request. Then in March 2026, the plan changed again, expanding to demolish the entire mall interior rather than a single wing. Each revision has been a real decision with a real vote behind it. None of them has been the final word.
None of this means the district won't get built, or that an arena won't eventually anchor it. It means a buyer weighing Willow Bend against a comparable West Plano neighborhood today shouldn't price in an amenity that's still two rounds of city approval and five years from opening.
What this means if you're comparing Willow Bend to somewhere else in West Plano
Put the pricing noise and the redevelopment timeline together and a clearer picture forms. Redfin's own neighborhood page shows homes here now taking an average of 81 days to sell, up from 60 days a year ago. Homes.com's figure for the same general window is lower, 52 days, but it too shows a market that's slowed compared to the pace luxury West Plano has typically kept. Buyers aren't fleeing. They're taking longer to decide, which is exactly what you'd expect next to a construction zone with a still-uncertain finish date, rather than a neighborhood pricing in a nearby arena that won't host a game until at least 2031.
If you're touring homes in Willow Bend Country, the Enclave at Willow Bend, or one of the Kings Court properties along the golf course, the fundamentals that have always mattered here still matter most: lot size, creek or fairway frontage, the Plano ISD zoning, proximity to the Tollway. Treat any future upside from The Bend as a bonus that may or may not arrive on the timeline the renderings suggest, not as a number already baked into today's price.
A few questions worth asking before you write an offer
Is the Dallas Stars arena a done deal? The public funding is approved and the developer group includes the team's own ownership, which is farther than most stadium proposals get. But the project's own targets, a 2028 groundbreak and a 2031-32 opening, mean it's a long-range bet rather than something reflected in today's comps.
Are the mall and the residential neighborhood the same "Willow Bend"? No. They're adjacent but distinct. The Shops at Willow Bend sits at the Tollway and West Park Boulevard. The residential enclave wraps White Rock Creek and Gleneagles' Kings and Queens golf courses just south and west of the mall property.
Why does one Redfin page disagree with another Redfin page? One shows a smoothed average across a broader window. The other reports a raw monthly median from a small sample of luxury sales. Both are accurate. They're just answering different questions.
Reading a neighborhood's numbers correctly matters more here than in most West Plano pockets, because the sample is small, the price point is high, and the biggest variable, a mixed-use district that's still being redesigned in real time, hasn't finished taking shape. If you're weighing Willow Bend against another Collin County or Dallas neighborhood and want someone to walk through what these numbers actually mean for your specific search, The Bracchi Group can help you look past the headline stat to the comps that actually apply to your price range and timeline. Contact Us.
